On the very rare occasions that nine athletes competed in a race and doubling-up in a single lane occurred, both athletes' performances were counted for that lane. For the analysis of effect of lane draw, the number of qualifiers from each lane comprising automatic qualifiers and fastest losers, but not those who progressed by appeal in the qualifying heats and semi-finals were measured, as were the number of medalists per lane in the final.
The number of qualifying heats per championship varied from six to nine men and five to eight women. Accordingly, the number of athletes qualifying as fastest losers varied so that, when added to the automatic qualifiers, 24 progressed to the semi-finals.
Exceptions occurred in the men's event in , , and when appeals meant that 25 took part in the semi-finals, and , when one athlete dropped out of the competition before the semi-finals. The single exception in the women's events was in when 25 took part in the semi-finals because one athlete progressed by appeal. The expected total across all championships for each qualifying heat was then found i.
All semi-finals had a format of three separate races, with the top two finishers advancing as automatic qualifiers and two fastest losers qualifying across all three races. Because there was a set number of automatic qualifiers per qualifying heat and semi-final, the performances of the fastest losers were analyzed rather than the automatic qualifiers, but the mean times of all athletes in each heat were also measured to indicate overall race quality, and to allow comparisons between heats regarding whether even distribution of athlete ability occurred.
One-way analysis of variance ANOVA with Bonferroni post-hoc tests were conducted to compare mean finishing and season's best times between qualifying heat numbers and semi-final numbers for both fastest losers and all athletes. Similarly, to analyze progression rates from qualifying heats, the number of fastest losers from the first half of the qualifying heats were grouped, and compared with the number from the second half using Pearson's chi-squared test of association.
Progression rates in the qualifying heats were compared using the first and second halves of the draw because of the disparity in the number of qualifying heats between championships e. In those instances where an odd number of qualifying heats were held as occurred in four men's and three women's championships , there was one qualifying heat more included in the first half than in the second. Figure 1 shows the placings and progression for each lane based on the proportion of athletes running in that lane who qualified for the next round, or who won medals in the final, compared with the expected rate per lane which equaled the mean of the actual rates found across all lanes.
During the qualifying heats, there were no differences in the women's event between the progression rates of those running in the middle lanes compared with either the inner or outer lanes, but in the men's qualifying heats the progression rate was higher in the middle lanes and inner lanes than in the outer lanes [middle vs. In the men's semi-finals, those in the middle lanes were more likely to qualify [middle vs.
Figure 1. The expected value shown as a dotted line refers to the percentage of athletes who would be expected to qualify from each lane or win a medal if randomly allocated.
Table 2 shows the mean finishing and SB times for those running in the inner, middle, and outer lanes, with annotations of any differences found.
Table 2. Tables 3 , 4 show the progression of the fastest losers by qualifying heat and semi-finals, as well as the mean times run by the fastest losers and all athletes in each ordered heat. In both men's and women's qualifying heats, there was no difference in qualifying progression rates between the first half and second half of races.
Table 3. Table 4. The mean SBs for the fastest losers and all athletes per heat are shown in Table 5. There were no differences found between SBs in either the qualifying heats or semi-finals for either men or women. Table 5. The aim of this study was to establish whether the draws for heats and lanes have an effect on placings and progression in m championship racing. The fact that lane draw in the qualifying heats and heat draw qualifying heats and semi-finals is by lot, with no differences in SBs found, allows for a robust analysis of the effects of those draws.
The lack of a difference in finishing times could reflect how achieving qualification can be a matter of very close finishes Hanley et al. As hypothesized, there were higher placings and progression rates for the middle four lanes during the semi-finals and final, which was unsurprising as the effects are biased because the highest-ranked athletes were drawn in those lanes, and their SBs were indeed faster than those in the inner and outer lanes.
Starting in the outer lanes prevents athletes from seeing their rivals who could be used as external references for pacing Renfree et al. Conversely, running in the inner positions allows athletes to see their opponents but might be blocked by them as they converge inwards after the breaking point, although the inner lanes were slower than the outer lanes during the semi-finals only which was not unexpected as the outer lanes have been allocated to faster athletes since Each lane thus has its own advantages and disadvantages, and though the random allocation of lanes that occurs in the qualifying heats is fair, being able to see other competitors in the inner lanes might outweigh the disadvantage of the tighter bend for men.
Furthermore, no differences were found in the probability of achieving a medal during the men's finals between athletes in the inner and middle lanes, even though the middle lane athletes had run faster SBs. The concern that running in the inner lanes might hinder m athletes is therefore unjustified as athletes run the other three bends in the inner lanes to achieve the shortest total distance in any case, and are therefore accustomed to their curvature.
Additionally, the slower pace adopted compared with and m races might reduce any impact of running in the inner lanes. It is possible that those athletes who doubled up in a lane competed with each other for the inside position within their lane, necessitating a faster start than normal, but these incidences were very rare.
Instead, the very inside lane was often vacated, either because fewer than eight athletes competed in any particular race although never in the semi-finals or because a nine-lane track was used. Because the first m, which is run in lanes, represents one eighth of the total race distance, tactical positioning is a very important aspect of championship racing Casado and Renfree, , and athletes should consider potential tactical options.
Whereas world-class athletes drawn in the outer lanes during the heats do not need to worry unduly about their starting lane, as, like in the later rounds, it is usually those with the fastest season's best times who qualify Renfree et al. These athletes should try to experience multiple races before a major championship, as practicing running in the outer lanes can be useful when learning to take the shortest realistic path when breaking to the inside Martin and Coe, Championship racing is, however, quite different from Diamond League competition because of the absence of pacemakers Filipas et al.
Athletes might break for the inside earlier on the back straight when a headwind is blowing because of possible drafting benefits Casado and Renfree, , but those athletes in the very outer lanes should consider the extra distance run Martin and Coe, Indeed, those men in the outer lanes who were less likely to progress from the qualifying heats might have made poor tactical decisions when breaking to the inside, resulting in more total distance run.
Ultimately, athletes should focus on achieving the optimal tactical position at and m as this has a greater effect on qualifying probability Casado and Renfree, Based on these novel results, the IAAF could reconsider the current performance-based allocation of lanes in m outdoor championship events, with athletes ranked fifth and sixth randomly allocated to the inner lanes, rather than the outer lanes at present.
In cases where athletes drop out of the competition after lanes have been drawn e. The draw for the qualifying heats and semi-finals is designed to achieve equally weighted races so that the highest ranked athletes avoid each other and qualify for the next round.
This study found that the seeding of qualifying heats and semi-finals in this manner did indeed achieve a fair distribution of competitors' abilities as no differences were found for either all athletes or the fastest losers within a race; this part of our hypothesis was therefore accepted. Indeed, the mean times for fastest losers in the qualifying heats were within such a narrow range Although, from a tactical viewpoint, it is considered advantageous to run in later heats IAAF, a , this study found that athletes did not take advantage of knowing what times previous fastest losers had run the progression rate for men's Heat 6 was approximately half that of earlier qualifying heats , notwithstanding that those in qualifying Heat 1 had relatively poor progression rates, possibly because they had no previous heat times to base their pacing on.
By contrast, it was noticeable in the men's event that half of all fastest losers in the semi-finals qualified from the first race, and on the one occasion that women had eight qualifying heats, no fastest losers qualified from the last two heats. There are a number of reasons why most athletes in the later races did not benefit from knowing the current fastest loser standings: first, they might not have known other athletes' times as the duration between races is relatively short, and athletes have to focus on their own race; second, it might be too difficult to pace oneself to such a specific time with few immediate sources of feedback; and third, middle-distance athletes have been found to be more concerned with finishing position, rather than time, even during the qualifying heats Hanley and Hettinga, This makes sense given that, in the semi-finals, at least one third-placed athlete will not qualify, no matter how good their finishing time is, and reiterates the importance of achieving an optimal tactical position after breaking from lanes.
This was supported by the finding that the fastest losers in the women's Semi-final 3 were faster than those in the prior semi-finals, but the numbers qualifying were not greater. It is also possible that athletes in the later heats calculate that they are unlikely to beat earlier fastest loser times, and focus on trying to achieve an automatic qualifying time.
As with the lane draw, there were no clear benefits to being drawn in any particular heat even if there potentially could be , and athletes should similarly not worry about this aspect of the championship structure at the expense of focusing on the race itself.
The data used for this study were taken from championship results and, although this provides high ecological validity, are therefore limited to the numbers of participants who took part. Because the analysis undertaken involved dividing these athletes by heat and lane, the numbers available for statistical analysis are relatively low.
As low sample sizes can lead to underpowered studies and a consequent increase in the possibility of Type II errors Cohen, , it is possible that differences occurred that were not detected. This study analyzed men's and women's m races at global athletics championships and found that there was little effect of lane or heat draw on eventual placings and progression, especially for women. In the randomly drawn qualifying heats, men in the outer lanes fared slightly worse, possibly because of greater difficulties in early pacing, and coaches should work with their athletes to practice pace management in the first m in particular.
Athletes should therefore adopt the most appropriate tactics when breaking from their lane a balance between running the shortest distance, avoiding being boxed in, and obtaining possible drafting and pacing benefits from the pack. There was no clear evidence of athletes in later heats taking advantage of knowing other athletes' finishing times e.
Seeding for the qualifying heats and semi-finals works in terms of distributing athletes evenly and fairly, but the IAAF could consider allocating the inner lanes to faster athletes rather than the outer lanes as the inner lanes appeared to present less of a disadvantage.
It should be noted though that the analysis might be underpowered with an increased possibility of Type II errors, and hence future studies should consider adding to these data already recorded at global championships. BH, AC, and AR conceptualized and designed the study, wrote the manuscript, and read and approved the final manuscript. BH conducted the data collection and analyses and created tables.
All authors read and approved the final manuscript. The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. Casado, A. Fortune favors the brave. Sports Physiol. Cohen, J. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum. A power primer.
Field, A. London: Sage. Google Scholar. This suggests that there may be some truth to the belief that sharper turns cause runners to slow down—and that disadvantage seems to outweigh the disadvantage of not being able to see your competitors, at least for this distance.
And lastly, in the meter dash, runners in the innermost lanes finished the fastest. It depends on the individual athlete, too. Runners who are especially skilled at navigating curves might feel like they have an edge on the inside, while others who concentrate better without seeing their competitors may prefer an outside spot. Whatever the case, it is still impressive if someone wins a gold medal from lane 1 or lane 8. BY Ellen Gutoskey. Elaine Thompson-Herah third from left on her way to a gold medal in the women's meter dash at Tokyo Olympics.
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